COVID-19: mathematical model indicates that just under 6% of French people have been infected

The SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic has resulted in extreme measures, with several countries imposing a lockdown on their residents. Like much of the rest of Europe, France has been badly affected by the outbreak; it introduced lockdown measures on March 17 with the aim of significantly reducing the circulation of the virus among the population. To help understand and manage this unprecedented health situation, it is vital to be able to estimate the level of circulation of the virus among the population, to evaluate the risk of developing a severe form of the disease and to identify indicators that measure the impact of the steps currently being taken against the outbreak. Scientists from the Institut Pasteur and the CNRS, in collaboration with Santé publique France, have conducted a detailed analysis of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 in France and developed models based on these data. Initial results suggest that just under 6% of the French population will have been contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 by the end of the first wave of the outbreak. The reproduction number (R0), which indicates the number of people that will catch the disease from each infected individual, has fallen from 3.3 at the beginning of the lockdown to 0.5.

Find out more (in French)

See the press conference on April 21 (in French)