Report on modeling performed over the past three months to evaluate the impact of variants and vaccines on the COVID-19 pandemic

In early 2021, the pandemic entered a new phase: the emergence of more transmissible variants soon gave rise to fears of a deterioration in the epidemic situation, but at the same time, vaccination raised hopes of a reduction in morbidity and mortality and an easing of pressure on the health system over the long term.

To provide us with scientific insights on the past few months, scientists from the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur have looked back at the modeling analyses performed since the start of the year (from January to March 2021). The aim of these analyses was to characterize the threat represented by the variants and to develop scenarios that would explore the impact of the variants, vaccines and control measures on the epidemic over the first six months of 2021.

Read the full article in the Modeling space in French (in the "Impact of variants and vaccination" section)