January 14, 2022
Bulletin interne de l'Institut Pasteur
Additional analysis – Impact of the Omicron variant on the COVID-19 epidemic and the extent to which it is kept under control in mainland France in winter 2021-2022
In a report dated December 27, 2021, scientists in the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur used mathematical modeling to assess the possible impact of the Omicron epidemic based on various hypotheses on the severity of the Omicron infection and on the effectiveness of vaccines against this variant, as well as the control strategies implemented (the booster and primary vaccination campaigns, vaccinating children, strengthening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and changing behavior).
In a report dated January 7, 2022, benefiting from a degree of hindsight, scientists of this Unit reduce the number of potential scenarios and predict the impact of the Omicron wave on the numbers of hospital beds needed in wards and in intensive care.