Modelling has evaluated the role of antiviral treatment and vaccination in exiting the Zero-COVID strategy in Wallis and Futuna

By June 2022, the Wallis and Futuna Islands, a French overseas territory, had successfully implemented a Zero-COVID strategy that significantly reduced the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. From mid-June 2022, a gradual reopening of the borders was planned. However, the relatively low immunity in the population (due to limited vaccination coverage and the number of previous infections) and the high prevalence of comorbidities (70% of adults are obese and 15% diabetic) led to fears of a resurgence of the epidemic with a significant impact on health. In this context, and with a view to advising the health authorities, scientists from the Institut Pasteur, the CNRS and Université Paris Cité developed mathematical models to predict how this wave of the epidemic could be mitigated through increased vaccination and the use of the antiviral Paxlovid®. The results, which attest to the valuable role of modelling in managing the COVID-19 epidemic, were published in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific.

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