Modeling to monitor and anticipate the Zika outbreak in Martinique

Zika virus infection is usually asymptomatic or mild. However, it can sometimes lead to an autoimmune disease called Guillain-Barré syndrome. In rare patients, this can result in serious neuropathic complications that require urgent hospital treatment. During an outbreak health authorities must provide enough beds in intensive care to treat these patients. This was the case in Martinique, a year ago, during the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak that hit the entire American continent. Santé Publique France, who provided recommendations to Martinique, relied on the modeling work of Simon Cauchemez’s team at the Institut Pasteur to analyze the situation.

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