New scenarios for the development of the COVID-19 epidemic following the easing of restrictions

Scientists from the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur have used mathematical models to generate various scenarios describing the possible development of the epidemic up to the summer, considering various hypotheses regarding the impact of the current restrictions, the pace at which the measures will be eased, and vaccination.

These projects take into account the increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization associated with the B.1.1.7 variant (the "British" variant) and the effect of the climate on transmission. The scientists have devised a realistic scenario for the partial easing of control measures over the summer period, based on what was observed during summer 2020.

See this research in full (in French)
Find out more about COVID-19 modeling at the Institut Pasteur (in French)