July 30, 2021
Bulletin interne de l'Institut Pasteur
Dynamics of the Delta variant in mainland France: updated models dated July 26
Scientists in the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur have used mathematical models to study the dynamics underlying the spread of the Delta variant by analyzing screening data documenting the L452R mutation.
In a first report published on July 9, the team studied the transmission dynamics of the Delta variant in mainland France between June 15 and July 9 and presented projections for numbers of cases and hospitalizations until October 1 for various scenarios.
In a second report published on July 26, they studied how the acceleration of the vaccination campaign observed since the announcements by French President Emmanuel Macron on July 12 may alter the dynamics of the fourth wave of the pandemic.